Souring S&P 500 profit outlook a bad sign for stock market rally

Wall Street analysts are quickly scaling back their forecasts for Corporate America’s earnings growth over the next year, which could pump the brakes on the blistering stock market rally before long.

A key indicator known as earnings-revision momentum – a gauge of upward-to-downward changes to expected per-share earnings over the next 12 months for the S&P 500 – has slumped into negative territory and is hovering near its second-worst reading in the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Corporate earnings have been the cornerstone of the stock market’s rally for most of the past decade. Souring outlook on profit growth may dent a further S&P 500 advance after this year’s run made valuations stretched and positioning elevated. The benchmark has been on track for its second consecutive year of gains, rising more than 20 per cent, and is at its most expensive level since April 2021.

Stocks are being “set up for a reversal”, said Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at BI. “The big issue heading into 2025 is whether the Fed will be able to continue easing policy and if earnings momentum will favour laggards outside of Big Tech.”

Of course, analysts still expect the S&P 500 to deliver its second-best period of profit growth since early 2022 in the third quarter as earnings broaden beyond Big Tech, BI data show. With roughly 90 per cent of companies in the index having already reported, S&P 500 profits are projected to climb by 8.5 per cent through September from a year ago, double the 4.2 per cent estimate at the start of earnings season.

While profits are expected to grow for a fifth-straight quarter, analysts have marked down earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the next 12 months after executives delivered mixed outlooks or held back on offering guidance amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve interest-rates cuts, weakness in China’s economy and questions about fiscal policy in Washington. 

Even before Donald Trump’s presidential election win, earnings-revision breadth for the S&P 500 was hovering near neutral for the past several months. Companies were “uncertain on 2024 outcomes and have been reluctant to guide further on 2025”, strategists led by Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients.

The earnings outlook for all of 2025 has barely budged even as analysts have raised third-quarter estimates. Wall Street sees S&P 500 companies earning around US$274 per share next year, slightly below projections of roughly US$277 a year ago, according to data compiled by BI. 

“As we approach the beginning of the new year, you tend to see a bias to more realistic expectations,” said Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management. “Combined with Fed comments about not seeing a clear rate-cut path, the headwinds become more realistic.”

Since mid-October, analysts have lowered year-ahead projections by the most for energy and materials companies as crude prices slump, BI data show. Excluding energy, which skewed estimates due to lower commodity prices and ebbing inflation, S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow by about 11 per cent year-over-year in the third quarter.

All told, S&P 500 profit growth is forecast to climb 15 per cent annually in 2025, up from estimates of 8 per cent this year. The problem, though, is that the index’s earnings recession that concluded last year was long but relatively shallow, which could open the door to a smaller profit expansion than stock bulls hope in the coming years.

From peak to trough, the S&P 500 posted a 13 per cent EPS contraction for its three-quarter earnings recession that ended last year, when viewed on a trailing 12-month basis, data compiled by BI show. That’s well short of the median 26 per cent peak-to-trough drop since the late 1960s.

Companies will need to post sturdy profit growth and strong outlooks for next year to sustain and justify rich valuations that have propelled the S&P 500 above the 6,000 milestone in recent months. At 22 times future 12-month earnings estimates, the index’s valuation is well above its long-term average of 18.4 over the past decade.

“Fewer rate cuts might put pressure on what are otherwise lofty earnings expectations over the next several quarters,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors. BLOOMBERG