Early bellwethers: Key races to watch as polls close on election night

The 2024 election hangs on a knife edge, with polling forecasting one of the closest elections in modern American history.

An early wave of polls will close at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. on the East Coast, giving viewers a valuable glimpse at whether the national environment is trending red or blue — including which messages in contested areas are winning out, which way the suburbs are leaning and whether Black voters are delivering for Democrats.

The answers will provide Americans an early look into the key races for control of Congress and other downballot contests, along with insights on how Vice President Kamala Harris is faring against former President Donald Trump.

Some of the first polls will close at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The only potential competitive congressional race to watch in those states is Indiana’s 1st District, where Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan is running for re-election. Neither party’s outside groups have engaged in the race, but if GOP underdog Randy Niemeyer pulls off an upset, it could foreshadow a red wave.

Both parties believe a wave is unlikely, so other districts will provide better clues about which way the winds are blowing in competitive races for Congress and the marquee presidential contest between Harris and Trump.

Here are some early bellwethers to watch:

Two Virginia districts offer a glimpse

Two congressional districts in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. ET, could tell the story of the evening: the 2nd District, centered around Virginia Beach and the 7th District, which includes Fredericksburg. Both districts may be valuable early indicators of how the election is playing out in the suburbs, which are key to Democratic victories up and down the ballot.

Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is favored in the swingy 2nd District. If she loses to Democratic rival Missy Cotter Smasal, GOP operatives will be worrying that they’re in for a bad night. It may also mean that Democrats’ messages of protecting abortion rights, preserving democracy and rejecting extremism — major themes of Cotter Smasal’s underdog campaign, as well as Harris’ — are resonating.

Kiggans is one of 16 House Republicans running for re-election in districts President Joe Biden won in 2020. Biden won this seat by just 2 points in 2020, according to an analysis from the NBC News Decision Desk. So this race could provide some early clues about the presidential race as well.

Virginia’s closely divided 7th District pits two political novices and Army veterans against each other: Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson, with Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., vacating the seat to run for governor. Democrats are slight favorites in the district, a blend of urban and rural parts of Northern Virginia, which Biden carried by 6 points four years ago. Vindman played a role in reporting the Ukraine phone call that led to Trump’s first impeachment, and his brother, Alexander, testified in those impeachment hearings. Anderson has been dogged by his use of a fake family photo, posing with his friend’s wife and three children to create the appearance that he’s a family man in campaign footage.

“If Jen Kiggans lost in Virginia Beach, that would be an upset. If [Eugene] Vindman lost in Northern Virginia, Virginia-7, that’d be an upset. And if these races go chalk, that’s reflecting what we expected, which is a really close House race,” said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster at the University of Virginia.

If one party wins both these races, they could be in for a strong night across the country.

North Carolina’s 1st District: Test of Black vote

This district in North Carolina, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, will provide a valuable early gauge of the Black vote, one of the most important questions of the 2024 election cycle. The closely divided 1st District is 39% Black, according to Census data, and both parties have been aggressively courting voters there.

The rural district has become a tougher climb for Democrats since Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map late last year. Biden would have won this redrawn district by just 1 point in 2020. And national Republicans got their preferred candidate, GOP Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, through the primary to take on first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis.

Essential to carrying the district, and to a possible victory for Harris, is strong Black voter turnout and avoiding significant defections to Trump as he seeks to peel off a slice of young Black men. If she fails at either task, it rapidly complicates her path to victory, as well as Democrats’ hopes in a series of races down the ballot.

Are Trump’s tactics working? Or is Harris holding her own with Black voters? Are they highly motivated to vote? Or turning out in lower numbers than usual? The results in this district could help answer those questions.

And the answers will have profound implications across the country, including in North Carolina, which is one of seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential election.

Ohio’s 9th District: Trump Country test

Republicans looking to make gains among blue-collar voters key to the Trump coalition could get some early clues in Ohio’s 9th District, where polls also close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982, faces Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin in the Toledo-based district, which Trump won by 3 points in 2020. Kaptur cruised to re-election in 2022 against a deeply flawed opponent, but Republicans are optimistic Merrin can defeat her this year.

Kaptur is one of five Democrats running for re-election in districts Trump won in 2020, and her race could provide an early indication of whether Democrats in similar districts can hang on. And Kaptur’s ability to outperform Harris will test the electorate’s appetite to “split” their tickets between the two parties, a dynamic that carries implications in many Senate races, too.